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April 27, 2026
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Episode 59, “Drug Development and Sports: The 10-Run Rule and Futility”

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In this episode of "In the Interim…", Dr. Scott Berry and Dr. Nick Berry investigate how futility in clinical trials and stopping rules in sports illuminate very similar decision problems, albeit with very different consequences.

In our latest "In the Interim…" episode, Doctors Scott and Nick Berry explore when to call it quits—in baseball and in clinical trials.

From Rory McIlroy's Masters lead to a 10-run rule win for Pomona-Pitzer, we examine predictive probabilities and stopping rules. The parallels are striking: just as baseball implements the 10-run rule, clinical trials use futility analyses to make data-driven game-over decisions.

Key takeaways:

● How predictive probability differs from conditional power

● Why Biogen's Aducanumab trial stopped early (and what happened next)

● Building better futility rules that balance ethics, cost, and scientific rigor

What is a 10-run rule in clinical trials?  Listen now:
https://www.berryconsultants.com/resource/59-drug-development-and-sports-the-10-run-rule-and-futility

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