Los Angeles County Modeling Updates

Since late March 2020, Berry Consultants LLC has been assisting Los Angeles County Department of Health Services with COVID-19 Hospital Demand Modeling Projections. The modeling team was tasked with “taking available data and making the best possible predictions regarding the spread of COVID19 in Los Angeles County and the associated demand for hospital-based care including hospital beds, intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and ventilators; and assessing the effectiveness of current physical distancing efforts in slowing the spread of COVID-19 and “flattening the curve.”

Since then, Berry Consultants has collaborated with a team of epidemiologists, statisticians, physicians, and public health experts to translate daily hospital utilization numbers into a model-based prediction of future hospital demand within Los Angeles County. These results have been consistently featured in press releases, press briefings, and newspaper articles. The modeling efforts are based on an SEIR epidemiologic model with data-based regressions translating new case predictions into projected hospital demand. The model also incorporates changes in physical distancing over time.

On April 10, 2020, LA County issued a press release and hosted a live press briefing, unveiling results of this modeling (presentation available here). This release included a statement about the modeling team from Berry Consultants, led by Dr. Roger Lewis and supported by Drs. Joseph Marion, Kert Viele and Todd Graves.

On April 22, 2020 updates from the ongoing work were used for a press conference during which Dr. Lewis provided responses to questions (39:30-41:45 and 53:45-55:45).

On May 18, 2020 the model results and graphics were included in an article in the Los Angeles Times discussing the current status of the outbreak in Los Angeles County and possible results of changes in physical distancing policies.

Berry Consultants continues to support this effort and will post future updates as available.